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Prof. Muhebullah Karimzada · UNBC Economics
ECON 101 · Macroeconomics

Monetary
Policy

How central banks use interest rates to manage inflation, employment, and economic growth.

Prof. Muhebullah Karimzada · UNBC Economics

Rate ↓ Rate ↑ % CENTRAL BANK
The Big Picture

The central bank manages the economy
through interest rates.

🏦

The Central Bank

In Canada, the Bank of Canada conducts monetary policy. It operates independently from the government — insulated from short-term political pressure to deliver long-run price stability.

🎯

The Mandate

The Bank of Canada's primary goal is to keep inflation low, stable, and predictable. It also supports sustained economic growth and full employment, but price stability comes first.

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The Primary Tool

The main instrument is the overnight policy rate — the interest rate at which major banks lend to each other overnight. Changing this rate ripples through the entire economy.

The Policy Rate

The overnight rate is the Bank of Canada's signal to the entire financial system. When it moves, borrowing costs everywhere follow.

How Banks borrow from each other overnight to manage daily cash needs. The Bank of Canada sets the target for this rate.
Chain Overnight rate → Bank prime rate → Mortgage rates, business loans, consumer credit across the economy.
Signal Each rate change sends a clear message to households, firms, and markets about where the economy is heading.
Schedule The Bank of Canada meets eight times a year to announce its rate decision. Markets watch these meetings closely.
BANK OF CANADA sets the Overnight Rate BANK PRIME RATE Overnight Rate + spread MORTGAGES Home loans BUSINESS Capital loans CONSUMER Credit, auto One rate change — economy-wide effect
The Two Directions

Expansionary vs. Contractionary Policy

Expansionary (Loose)
Rate ↓
Used when: recession · slow growth · high unemployment
↑Borrowing becomes cheaper
↑Consumer spending rises
↑Business investment expands
↑GDP and employment grow
Contractionary (Tight)
Rate ↑
Used when: high inflation · overheating economy
↓Borrowing becomes more expensive
↓Consumer spending falls
↓Business investment contracts
↓Inflation cools

The Transmission Mechanism

How a rate change by the Bank of Canada reaches your mortgage, your job, and the price of groceries.

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Policy Rate
Bank of Canada raises or lowers the overnight rate
›
💳
Credit Costs
Mortgage, loan, and credit rates rise or fall across the economy
›
🛒
Spending
Households consume more or less; firms invest more or less
›
📦
Output & Jobs
GDP expands or contracts; employment rises or falls
›
📈
Inflation
Price pressures ease or build, reaching the 2% target
Important: This chain takes 12–18 months to fully work through the economy. Central banks must act ahead of problems — reacting only after inflation arrives is already too late.
The Target

2% Inflation Target

The Bank of Canada aims to keep inflation at 2% — the midpoint of a 1–3% control band.

Why 2%? A small positive rate buffers against deflation, which is far more damaging to an economy than mild inflation.

Control band (1–3%): Inflation above 3% triggers tightening; below 1% triggers easing. The band gives room for shocks.

Anchored expectations: If everyone believes inflation will stay near 2%, they set wages and prices accordingly — making the target self-fulfilling. Credibility is everything.

3% 2% ★ 1% Time → Inflation % Tighten ↑ Ease ↓
"
Monetary policy cannot do everything — but it remains the most powerful tool we have for keeping a bad situation from becoming a crisis.
— Prof. Muhebullah Karimzada · ECON 101 · UNBC
Monetary Policy · Interest Rates · Inflation · Bank of Canada

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